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You are here: Home / From Curtis / Zillow Estimates: Reality or a puff of some type of air????

Zillow Estimates: Reality or a puff of some type of air????

August 27, 2008 by Curtis Van Carter 2 Comments

I received this Zillow newsletter today and decided to check it out for accuracy.
Obviously, Zillow may be using their own “Zestimator” to come up with these values or some other data accumulator such as DataQuick to which I have no access. The only database I have quick access to is my MLS, BAREIS. In Napa Valley, BAREIS listings represent approximately 95% of all residential properties sold here.  Thus I compared the sold properties in Yountville for second quarter 2007 vs 2008:
2007  7 sold     median price  $675,000     average price   $656,286
2008  7 sold     median price  $530,000     average price   $590,537
Comparing the median price, which is what I believe Zillow does, shows a 21.5% drop from 2007 to 2008. Obviously, Yountville being such a limited number of sold properties, it takes only one sale to eskew the numbers but the difference between Zillow’s 8.1% makes me think. Maybe HOT AIR???????

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Filed Under: From Curtis, Napa Valley, RE Current Info Tagged With: Napa Valley, RE Current Info, real estate stats, zillow

Curtis Van Carter, has been one of Napa Valley Real Estate's most knowledgeable and experienced agents. He has been characterized by his clients for his honesty and knowledge to make a home sale or purchase as smooth as possible. If you are interested in selling or listing a home please call or EMAIL Curtis here.

Comments

  1. Brian says

    August 27, 2008 at 12:14 pm

    I did a quick comps search of sales in Yountville zip code 94599 in the last 6 months and found 9 closed sales with Median price: $535,000
    Low price: $425,454 Median Price per SF: $459
    High price: $1,120,000 Median Gross SF: 1,200

    http://propertyshark.com/mason/Comps

    Reply
  2. David G from Zillow.com says

    August 27, 2008 at 4:16 pm

    Hi Curtis, it’s David G from Zillow,

    Zillow’s data reports on the change in value of all homes whereas a median sales price analysis only considers those few homes that sold. In a changing market, median sales analysis is a flawed measure of value because it is easily skewed by a change in the type of homes sold. In a bubble market, a median sales analysis will typically identify the market peak much later than it truly happens and will typically also overstate the decline once it does detect that trend. And as sales volumes decline, there’s less data and more noise in a recent sales price analysis.

    For a more detailed discussion of this problem with median sales analysis, read this blog post: http://tinyurl.com/5v4g2k

    The short story is a good one; homes in your area most likely did not lose 21,5% of their value in the last year.

    Reply

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