The number of Napa County foreclosures in 2011 are at a four-year low. From the Napa County Assessors office there were 1,087 property owners here who received a Notice of Default (NOD) in 2011 compared to 1,173 in 2010. A notice of default may be filed after an owner is 90 days delinquent in payments, or longer, depending on the lender.
Here are the statistics for NOD’s and foreclosure for the past five years:
For comparison to nearly a decade ago, in 2002 and 2003 there were only 10 Trustees Deeds recorded in Napa County each year.
What does this mean for someone buying here in the Napa Valley? In my opinion, very little for there are still a lot of distressed properties out there, the so called shadow inventory. Just how many, no knows exactly but in the last six months for all Napa County, there were 691 residential sales of which 357 were distressed sales. That is a 51.7 percentage and this number has stayed very constant for the last six months.
The most amazing statistic is with all these sales, the median price for the last six months has gone down as well as the number of homes for sale. Nearly six months ago, the number of homes on the market was 691, today there are 487. The median price then was $332,000, today it is $329,900. The number of all residential sales, this includes single family detached and condos, for the last six months, 357, compared to the previous six month period, 388, is also down probably due to the lack of inventory, not demand. Demand has stayed extremely HOT especially in properties under $400,000. Most often there are multiple offers on these homes, sometimes as many as 10!!!
The logical person would think with shrinking inventory, number of sales and prices remaining the same, plus the current record low interest rates and large demand, could consider this the bottom everyone talks about. Not in my opinion for I think a true bottom will not happen till we get rid of the large number of bank owned properties on their books and to be foreclosed on yet, the shadow inventory. Every estimate I see states there are still approximately 12 million homes which are under waster, owe more than they will sale for, That is nearly 25 percent of all properties in the United States.
So unfortunately, I don’t have the best of news. I think it is at least to 2013 and most likely till 2014 that we will truly be at the bottom. The rainbow and pot of gold on this cloudy prediction, once we truly bottom there will a pop in home prices. I feel it will be 25 – 50 percent over the next few years. If you can wait till then, that will be the time to sell for after this pop, I don’t think there will be another in the lifetime of anyone reading this.
A few statistics for the U.S. and California, according to data service RealtyTrac, 1,887,777 U.S. properties in 2011 had foreclosure filings — default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions and one in every 31 California housing units had at least one foreclosure filing during the year.
Thank you for reading this post. If I can ever be of help in finding you the perfect property here in the Napa Valley, please email me at Curtis@NapaValleyAddress.com
Your Broker Extraordinaire, selling Napa Valley Real Estate from its heart, Yountville
My website & blog: www.NapaValleyAddress.com