Remember from my July 18th post “Napa Valley Real Estate, a Tale of Two Times Two Markets“ was the number of distressed sales (in foreclosure, a short sale or a bank owned property, REO) increasing for homes priced $800,000 to $2,000,000, especially up valley. By up valley I mean the Cities of St. Helena, Calistoga, Angwin, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford and the Town of Yountville. Today, there are 5 distressed sales of 80 active listings in this price range, compared to 5 of 80 on March 1st. Keep tuning in for this as a new monthly stat I will regularly tract from now own. Next look May 1st.
I have been tracking this for six months now. The motivation for my doing so started by the constant rumor I would listen to when talking to many others in the real estate business, my fellow agents, loan brokers, escrow people, heck even an occasional office manager would warn us about this happening. Even the press got into the act. The local paper, The Napa Register, running two articles on February 23, 2010, “Million-dollar bargains?” and “Distressed real estate market creeping into larger properties“; and the Los Angles Times article on February 19, 2010, “High-end home sellers lower their sights“. With this type of hype, buzz no wonder it was easy to feel the “sky was falling”.
The only thing I can say, the facts are proving this wrong. Since I have been reporting on the facts, November 2009, the numbers have been 3/89, 2/76, 3/79, 5/80 & 4/81. Yes I realize I said six months and there are only five numbers. I missed December of last year, sorry!
The only conclusion I can draw, the inventory is down and this is consistent throughout the Napa Valley, and yes there are a few more distressed sales but the world is not falling apart here in paradise. I even checked the number of solds for the last six months for the same dollar range of distressed homes and there was only one.
Tune in next month and see if this trend, or should I say lack of one, continues.